Road to Portland: The End of the Road - NTN Race Preview

MILESPLIT NATIONAL PORTAL 

 

The long wait has finally ended.  The top teams from around the country fly into Portland today, starting the weekend long festivites for Nike Team Nationals.  Read our preview as we detail who the favorites are and how the race may unfold.

Road to Portland: The End of the Road - NTN Race Preview

*All rankings are from the MileSplit National Team Power Rankings.

Boys Race

  Now in its fourth year, Nike Team Nationals is gaining attention from teams like never before.  With regionals put in place for the first time ever, teams from across the land felt as though they finally had an equal shake to qualify for nationals regardless of who they faced during the season or where they were from.

  Some great matchups took place from coast to coast, with only two teams qualifying from each region and another four teams selected as at-large teams.  The depth of this year's boys field is amazing.  No fewer than ten teams have the athletes necessary to rise up and finish in the top three.  The battle plans to be fierce, the question is which teams will rise up and meet the challenge.

The Favorite

  Naperville XC Club (Neuqua Valley H.S., IL) is the team to beat.  A dominating season in the Midwest ranks this team atop the MileSplit National Team Power Rankings.  An early season injury to number two runner Jim Riddle did not shake this team.  Instead they grew stronger, knowing he would eventually be back in the mix. 

  Naperville's fearless leader is Chris Derrick.  Derrick broke numerous course records throughout the season and ran the second fastest mark ever on the historic Illinois State Meet course.  He leads Riddle, who is back fully healthy now, junior Danny Pawola and sophomore Aaron Beattie, who team up to create the best top four in the land.  Teams need to put their top runners with Riddle and Pawola if they hope to have a shot at beating Naperville.

East v. West

  While Naperville dominates the heart of the country, the Midwest, the teams from the east and west seem to be the next in line to show their talents.  North Central XC Club (North Central H.S., WA) enters as the second ranked team in the country.  Their strong front runner junior Andrew Kimpel leads the way.  The team plowed through competition in Washington state all season long, running as a tight-knit pack most of the time.

  U.S. #4 Albuquerque XC Club (Albquerque Academy, NM) and U.S. #5 Los Alamos XC Club (Los Alamos H.S., NM) are the fiercest of rivals.  These teams met multiple times this season.  Albuquerque started strong and looked a bit unbeatable, however Los Alamos came on strong at the end of the season beating Albuquerque at state.  The two teams tied at the NTN Southwest Regional, merely adding to their heated rivalry.  These two teams push each other and know each other better than any of the other teams in the field know their competition.  That is definitely an advantage.

  While Albuquerque and Los Alamos battled in the NTN Southwest Regional, U.S. #5 Brookline (Brookline H.S., MA) and U.S. #6 Danbury (Danbury H.S., CT) battled in the NTN Northeast Regional last weekend.  Brookline beat Danbury by one point behind their strong top four.  While their fifth runner tailed off dramatically, Brookline's top four seem to be stronger than everyone's besides Naperville's.  Danbury follows the lead of senior leaders Matt Terry and Willie Ahearn, as the squad tries to improve off of their eighteenth place finish from last year's NTN.

Best of the Rest

  While the six pre-race favorites are listed above, a handful of other teams can run well and finish very high.  U.S. #7 Woodlands XC Club (The Woodlands H.S., TX) ran away from the field at the NTN South Regional despite finishing without their top runner Reed Connor.  If Connor is fully healthy look for this team to make a run at top three. 

  Another powerhouse team is Elmhurst XC Club (York H.S., IL).  The team from Elmhurst is participating in their fourth straight (yep, that's all of them) Nike Team National competition.  Led by a high quality duo up front of senior Tom Achtein and junior Steve Sulkin, this team came on strong at the end of the season, finishing second at both the Illinois State Meet and NTN Midwest Regional, both times behind Naperville XC Club.

  Two more schools round out the top ten in the MileSplit National Team Power Rankings.  U.S. #8 Great Portland XC Club (Central Catholic H.S., OR) is the hometown favorite.  Their top runner Taylor Morgan leads the way for the squad as they compete in their third NTN.  Dana Point XC Club (Dana Hills H.S., CA) is ranked ninth nationally and flies to Portland on a high note from winning the California State Meet in dominating fashion.  Their strong 32 second split is the best in the field.

The Greats Collide

  The story of Nike Team Nationals weekend is always about the the teams and proving who the best may be.  However, this year a certain battle of front runners might capture some of the attention.  While Foot Locker is a week away, fans get a little preview as Foot Locker Midwest qualifier Chris Derrick (Sr., Naperville, IL) and Foot Locker South winner Colby Lowe (Sr., Carroll, TX) go head-to-head.  Add in last year's top junior Foot Locker finisher Ben Johnson (Sr., Albuquerque, NM), and you have one of the best matchups in the country.  All three runners are national champion caliber athletes, so expect a fierce battle.

 

Girls Race

  It is mind blowing to think just how dominant the New York squads have been at Nike Team Nationals in the past three years.  Two past champion girls teams are in the field in Kinetic XC Club (Saratoga Springs H.S., NY) and Manlius XC Club (Fayetteville-Manlius H.S., NY).  Four teams from the state race in the girls championship Saturday making it even more likely that they'll be the most powerful state.

  However, numerous teams can capture some attention if they run their race plans to perfection.  While a few teams may be the clear favorites this time around, a top five finish is very realistic for over a dozen teams.  The rain and mud may slow down this girls field, but the competition will be fierce.

The Favorite

  Manlius XC Club (Fayetteville-Manlius H.S., NY) flies into Portland as the easy favorite heading into Saturday's Nike Team Nationals.  The team from New York swept through their competition all season long, not losing a single meet, looking unbeatable at all times.

  Big wins at the Manhattan Invitational, the New York State Championships and the New York Federations put this squad at the top of the rankings.  They are led by freshman Courtney Chapmin and sophomores MacKenzie Carter, Hannah Luber and Molly Malone.  With only one senior in their top seven this team is ripe for a dynasty. 

  Coach Aris knows how to prepare this team for this national meet.  Last season the squad won the girls title and they are back to win another one.  While challengers may be a plenty this weekend, Manlius knows how to perform under pressure and have the talent to do something few spectators have ever seen.  This is one of the best teams of all time.

The Challenger

  While the strength of New York is the talk of the town this weekend across the land, a team from California presents the biggest challenge to Manlius.  Newhall XC Club (Saugus H.S., CA) ran undefeated all season long, seemingly improving each week.  A lot of different things set this team apart from other teams.

  One of the keys for Newhall is there amazingly tight race strategy.  All season long their 1-5 splits have been under one minute.  Their two front runners, senior Katie Dunn and freshman Kaylin Mahoney, work together most of the time, generally finishing high up in most fields. 

  At the California State Meet this past weekend Newhall used that tight-knit pack to run the fastest team time ever at the meet, while producing an amazing 1-6 split of a mere 45 seconds.  No other team outside of Manlius can produce those types of results, hence why Newhall is labeled as the main challenger.

New York, New York

  Outside of Manlius, three more New York teams are in the field, two of which are top three favorites.  Burnt-Hills XC Club (Burnt-Hills H.S., NY), Kinetic XC Club (Saratoga Springs H.S., NY) and Warwick XC Club (Warwick Valley H.S., NY) stack the field, with Burnt-Hills and Kinetic being watched closely.  All season long B-H and Kinetic toed the line of races and went at each other.  In earlier meets Saratoga won close battles, but at the N.Y. Federations Burnt-Hills performed better and then beat Saratoga head to head at the NTN New York Regional.

  Both squads have front runners.  Hannah Davidson (Sr., Kinetic) and Sam Roecker (Jr., Burnt-Hills) each show enough talent and experience to finish in the top three, while strong pack running is the name of the game for the rest of their teammates.  Burnt-Hills comes to Portland on a high note, while Saratoga has plenty of experience to work from after qualifying for NTN (winning in '04 and second in '05) two of the previous three years.

Best of the Rest

  Another team with a strong chance to contend for top three is Des Moines XC Club (Dowling Catholic H.S., IA).  Led by sophomore front runners Katie Flood and Ashlie Decker, Dowling Catholic has two individuals who should finish in the top ten.  Their pack after those two is a bit back, but is strong as nearly any other teams.

  Early season favorites Fort Collins XC Club (Fort Collins H.S., CO) and Caution XC Club (Mountain Brook H.S., AL) are both hoping to put forth great performances.  Fort Collins looked strong early in the season only to fade a bit down the stretch, losing at their state meet.  However, the squad picked up the pieces and turned in a great NTN Southwest Regional victory. 

  Caution performed great all season long, picking up big wins at the Bob Firman Invitational and Great American XC Festival.  They finished a disappointing third at the NTN Southeast Regional, but hope to make up for that race at NTN after receiving an NTN at-large berth.

  Don't discount Carroll XC Club (Southlake Carroll H.S., TX) and Yankton XC Club (Yankton H.S., SD), both squads running in their fourth straight Nike Team Nationals.  Both squads earned automatic berths from their respecitve regional competitions and seem to have figured out the equation to succeeding at NTN.  At no point have either of these teams ever finished out of the top eight at nationals.

Who Scores 1 Point for Their Team?

  The individual battle won't be as strong as the boys up top, but there are still a few Foot Locker caliber athletes that lead the way.  Georgia Griffin (Sr., Hanover, NH) and Katie Flood (So., Des Moines, IA) are the two individual co-favorites.  Griffin stomped through the competition in the Northeast all season outside of a second place finish at the Manhattan Invitational, while Flood won a few big meets early in the season and took second at the Foot Locker Midwest Regional.

  Behind those two are two more front runners in Sam Roecker (Jr., Burnt-Hills, NY) and Hannah Davidson (Sr., Kinetic, NY).  These New York ladies were both top five in the state on a continual basis in a year that had numerous front runners. 

Melaine Thompson (Jr., Hunterdon, NJ) and Madeline Morgan (Sr., Caution, AL) both impressed throughout the season as well.  Thompson finished second to Griffin at the NTN Northeast Regional, while Morgan won the NTN Southeast Regional.  While none of these six girls is seemingly in the league of someone like Jordan Hasay (Jr., Mission Prep, CA), they are all talented enough to be running at the Foot Locker competition in a week's time.